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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.